Energy

President Donald Trump announced a major shift in U.S. Middle East policy during his Gulf tour, declaring an end to Syria sanctions and securing a 600billioneconomicanddefensepact∗∗withSaudiArabia—includinga∗∗600billioneconomicanddefensepact∗∗withSaudiArabia—includinga∗∗142 billion arms deal, the largest in U.S. history. Key Developments: Controversies & Context:

The Kremlin has confirmed that Russia and the U.S. are negotiating the resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe, marking a potential geopolitical shift as Trump pushes for a Ukraine peace deal. Key Developments: Market & Political Impact:

The U.S. oilfield services sector is bracing for a sharp slowdown as plunging crude prices—driven by OPEC+ supply hikes and Trump’s trade war—force producers to slash drilling budgets, idle rigs, and delay projects. Key Developments: Trade War Toll:

Oil and gas drilling permits in Texas, the heart of U.S. crude production, collapsed to a four-year low in April as producers brace for a double whammy of rising OPEC+ output and Trump’s escalating trade war, which threaten to prolong the oil price slump. Key Data & Reactions: Market Pressures:

The U.S. sanctions on two Chinese “teapot” refiners—Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical (March) and Shandong Shengxing Chemical (April)—for buying Iranian crude have begun to disrupt operations, forcing them to reroute cargoes, secure financing from smaller banks, and sell products under different company names to evade restrictions. Key Impacts: Broader Fallout:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) flagged rising oil market volatility on Tuesday, citing OPEC+’s accelerated production hikes and uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs as key risks. Oil prices plunged to a four-year low this week after OPEC+ signaled plans to further boost output, while economists warn tariffs could trigger a global demand slowdown. Key Drivers: Price Forecasts Slashed:

Saudi Arabia is once again flexing its muscles in the oil market, flooding supply to discipline OPEC+ cheaters like Kazakhstan and Iraq—but this time, weak global demand threatens to undermine its strategy. With prices already below $60/barrel and a prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China dampening consumption, the kingdom risks a lose-lose scenario: lower revenues and a fractured OPEC+ alliance. Key Developments:

The European Union is set to unveil a strategy to halt new Russian gas deals and phase out existing contracts by 2027, marking a decisive step in ending Europe’s decades-long energy dependence on Moscow. The plan, expected Tuesday from the European Commission, includes measures to ban new Russian gas import agreements and restrict uncontracted “spot” purchases, sources told Reuters. Key Elements of the […]

Kazakhstan, a top-10 global oil producer, exceeded its OPEC+ quota by 23% in April, pumping 1.814 million barrels per day (bpd)—down 3% from March but far above its 1.473 million bpd limit. This marks another breach of the group’s agreement, sparking tensions with fellow members. Key Drivers & Implications:

BP reported a sharp 48% drop in Q1 net profit to $1.4 billion, missing analyst estimates, as weaker gas trading, refining margins, and lower production squeezed earnings. The British oil giant also announced the departure of strategy chief Giulia Chierchia amid investor demands for higher cash flow and a pivot away from its renewables-focused strategy. Key Developments: Market […]