Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest could decline by 10% to 51 million metric tons, down from 56.7 million tons in 2024, according to Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval. The drop is attributed to abnormal weather, wartime disruptions, and mined farmland from Russia’s ongoing invasion.
Key Factors Impacting Production:
- Weather Extremes: A warm, dry winter followed by heavy rains delayed sowing in key regions.
- War Risks: Farmers face danger from fighting, mined fields, and occupied territories, reducing cultivable land.
- Crop-Specific Forecasts:
- Corn: 26 million tons
- Wheat: 20–22 million tons (weather-dependent)
- Sunflower seeds: 11.5 million tons (Ukraine is the top global sunflower oil exporter)
- Oilseeds overall: Down 5% to 20.16 million tons, with rapeseed falling 600,000 tons.
Export Uncertainty:
While Koval withheld an official 2025/26 grain export forecast, analysts project 40.9 million tons, including 15–15.5 million tons of wheat. However, EU policy shifts and stronger harvests in competitor nations may further pressure Ukrainian shipments.
Ukraine Warns of 10% Grain Harvest Drop in 2025 Amid War and Climate Challenges