Chicago wheat futures retreated Friday, slipping 0.2% to $5.43¼/bushel, as a rebound from last week’s five-year low lost momentum amid fading speculative buying. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans extended gains, supported by tightening global stocks and adverse weather in key growing regions.
Why Wheat Stalled
📉 Profit-Taking: Funds switched to net sellers after driving a 3.5% weekly gain on weather fears.
🌍 Mixed Fundamentals:
- Russia removed minimum wheat prices, but weak demand limits impact.
- U.S. exports hit a 5-month high, providing some support.
🔍 Trader Skepticism: Without confirmed crop damage, the rally lacked staying power.
Corn & Soybeans Stay Strong
🌽 Corn (+0.2%):
- IGC raised 2025-26 production forecast, but stocks remain tight.
- Cheap vs. wheat, attracting buyers.
🌱 Soybeans (+0.1%): - Argentina’s flooding risks underpin prices.
What’s Next?
- Weather Watch: Dryness in Russia/Black Sea could revive wheat bulls.
- Fund Activity: Will speculators resume shorting wheat?
- Macro Risks: Dollar swings, export data to dictate near-term trends.
Wheat Rally Fizzles as Funds Exit, While Corn and Soybeans Extend Gains on Supply Risks