Brazil, the world’s largest chicken exporter, has ruled out avian influenza (bird flu) in three of seven suspected cases, officials announced Monday, offering temporary relief to a global market on edge over potential trade disruptions. However, four cases—including two on commercial poultry farms—remain under investigation, keeping the agriculture sector and international buyers braced for possible export bans.
Outbreak Status & Trade Implications
- Negative Tests: Three suspected cases from subsistence (non-commercial) farms were cleared.
- Pending Investigations: Two involve commercial farms (Tocantins and Santa Catarina states), while two others are backyard flocks.
- First Confirmed Outbreak: Last week, Brazil reported its first-ever commercial farm case in Rio Grande do Sul, triggering automatic trade bans under agreements with China, the EU, and South Korea.
Why It Matters
Brazil exported $10B worth of chicken (5+ million metric tons) in 2022, supplying 35% of global trade. Key buyers like China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia impose strict protocols:
- Nationwide bans if commercial farms are infected (per China/EU/South Korea deals).
- Regional restrictions for Japan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
- U.S. Continues Imports: America, facing its own bird flu crisis, will keep buying Brazilian eggs.
Containment Efforts & Timeline
Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro emphasized vigilance:
“Farmers report sick animals immediately—this is critical. If no new cases emerge in 28 days, Brazil can negotiate to lift restrictions.”
- Current Hotspots: Montenegro (Rio Grande do Sul) confirmed a commercial farm outbreak; a wild swan case was found 50km away.
Market Reactions
- Export Risks: Prolonged outbreaks could disrupt supply chains, raising global poultry prices.
- Farmer Preparedness: Commercial farms are isolating flocks, while subsistence farmers face heightened scrutiny.