U.S. Grain Exports Face Mixed Outlook for 2025-26: Corn Strong, Soybeans Struggle, Wheat Holds Steady

The 2025-26 U.S. grain export season is shaping up with corn leading the charge, soybeans lagging behind, and wheat holding competitive ground, according to early sales data and USDA projections.

Key Highlights:

1. Corn (2025-26):
   • Early Sales: 2.75M metric tons (3-year high, but below long-term average).
   • USDA Forecast: 2nd-highest exports ever, up 3% YoY, but faces Brazilian competition (2nd crop up 11%).
   • China Factor: Minimal purchases after accounting for 31% of U.S. exports in 2020-21.
2. Soybeans (2025-26):
   • Slow Start: Just 1M tons sold (lowest in 20 years for this date).
   • USDA Forecast: Down 2% YoY, with China likely delaying purchases due to Brazil’s dominance and trade tensions.
3. Wheat (2025-26):
   • Strong Sales: 3.3M tons (2nd-best in a decade).
   • USDA Forecast: Slight dip (-2% YoY) as Russia remains top global exporter.
4. Soybean Meal & Oil:
   • Meal: USDA predicts 4th straight record (+3.4% YoY), but early sales weakest in 14 years.
   • Oil: Exports expected to drop 29% YoY, though still above recent lows.