China’s Cobalt Stockpiles Buffer Congo Export Ban, But Oversupply Looms Until 2030

Despite the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) four-month cobalt export ban, Chinese smelters and battery makers remain well-supplied, with stockpiles lasting up to six months for large consumers, industry experts revealed at the Cobalt Congress 2025 in Singapore. However, a persistent global oversupply threatens to keep prices depressed long-term.

Key Takeaways:

• China’s Stockpile Lifeline:
  • Large firms hold 6 months of cobalt supply, while smaller players rely on pricier spot markets (~2 weeks of inventory).
  • Traders are sitting on 12 months’ worth of cobalt metal, cushioning the DRC ban’s impact.
• Price Recovery: Cobalt has rebounded to **16/lb∗∗(from16/lb∗∗(from10 in late 2024) but faces headwinds as Indonesian output doubles by 2027.
• Congo’s Next Move: Regulators may impose stricter export controls post-ban to stabilize prices, but oversupply is expected until at least 2030.

Market Forecast:

• 2025 Supply: 327,000 metric tons (+6% YoY), driven by nickel/copper byproduct production.
• 2025 Demand: 237,000 tons (+0.3%), with EVs and electronics growth offset by thrifting and alternative batteries.
• 2030 Projection: Supply (390K tons) will still outstrip demand (264K tons).