Goldman Sachs predicts gold will continue its dominance over silver in 2025, citing strong central bank purchases and heightened geopolitical/recession risks as key drivers. The gold-silver ratio—now at 102 oz of silver per 1 oz of gold (vs. 84.7 a year ago)—reflects this divergence. While silver (+12% YTD) benefits from gold’s rally, its upside is capped by slowing Chinese solar demand and industrial weakness.
Gold (+26% YTD) hit a record $3,500/oz in April, with Goldman forecasting:
- 3,700/ozbyend−2025∗∗(basecase),∗∗3,700/ozbyend−2025∗∗(basecase),∗∗4,000 by mid-2026.
- $3,880 if recession accelerates ETF inflows.
- $4,500 in extreme scenarios (e.g., Fed politicization, U.S. reserve policy shifts).
Fed Watch: Powell’s remarks Wednesday may sway rates outlook, but Trump’s pledge to keep Powell as chair tempers near-term volatility.
Goldman Sachs: Gold to Keep Outshining Silver Amid Central Bank Demand & Recession Risks