Barclays has cut its 2025 Brent crude forecast by 4to4to70/barrel, warning of a “rocky road ahead” as escalating trade tensions and OPEC+ supply policy shifts threaten market stability. The bank now predicts a 1 million barrel/day surplus in 2025, widening to 1.5 mb/d in 2026, citing weakening macro conditions despite resilient demand from China and a stabilized property sector.
Key Drivers:
- Trade War Fallout: New tariffs are denting economic activity, with demand growth potentially overstated due to earlier stockpiling.
- Supply Glut: Non-OPEC output (U.S., Canada, Brazil, Norway) is lagging forecasts, but OPEC+’s faster phase-out of voluntary cuts adds 240 kb/d to supply.
- Price Extremes: Barclays sees two paths—75/barrel∗∗iftradetensionsease,oraplungetothe∗∗low−75/barrel∗∗iftradetensionsease,oraplungetothe∗∗low−50s if demand stumbles and OPEC+ holds firm.
U.S. crude production is now expected to flatline in late 2025, down from prior growth estimates. With the market’s “limited shock-absorption capacity,” prices face near-term volatility.
Barclays Slashes 2025 Oil Forecast to 50 Risk