In Brazil’s Bahia state, farmer Moises Schmidt is planting the seeds of an agricultural revolution—a 10,000-hectare (24,700-acre) cocoa megafarm that could help redefine global chocolate production. His project, part of a wave of industrial-scale cocoa ventures in Brazil, aims to challenge West Africa’s dominance by applying soybean-style farming methods to a crop traditionally grown in small, shaded plots.
The Cocoa Crisis Creating Opportunity
- West Africa’s Collapse: Ivory Coast and Ghana (60% of global supply) face three straight years of declining yields due to disease, climate change, and aging trees.
- Price Surge: Cocoa hit **12,931/tonin2024∗∗(now 12,931/tonin2024∗∗(now 8,200), making large-scale farming viable.
- Brazil’s Bid: Schmidt predicts 500,000 hectares of high-yield cocoa could produce 1.6M tons annually within a decade—rivaling Ghana’s current output.
Industrial Cocoa 2.0
- Density & Tech: Schmidt plants 1,600 trees/hectare (vs. 300 traditionally), with mechanized irrigation and fertilizers. Early yields hit 3,000 kg/ha—6x Ivory Coast averages.
- Corporate Backing: Cargill already partners on Schmidt’s pilot 400-hectare plot; Barry Callebaut and Mars are exploring similar mega-farms.
- Seedling Factory: Schmidt’s nursery produces 10M high-yield clones/year using Danish forestry tech.
Risks & Skepticism
- Disease Vulnerability: Monoculture clones risk repeats of Brazil’s 1980s “Witches’ Broom” fungus disaster.
- Taste Debate: Full-sun cocoa may lack flavor complexity, though initial tests show no quality drop.
- Price Sensitivity: Analysts warn projects need sustained $6,000+/ton prices to justify expansion.
Why It Matters
- Supply Chain Shift: Success could reduce reliance on West Africa, where child labor and deforestation plague the industry.
- Farmer Economics: At $8,200/ton, cocoa is “super profitable” vs. soy or corn, says Schmidt.
- Climate Resilience: Bahia’s flat, irrigated savanna may prove more reliable than drought-hit Africa.
What’s Next?
- 2025-26: First commercial harvests from mega-farms will test yield and quality claims.
- Corporate Deals: Chocolate giants are negotiating long-term offtake agreements to secure supply.
- Global Watch: If Brazil’s model works, Ecuador and Indonesia may follow suit.
Key Quotes:
- Moises Schmidt: “Brazil will become the world’s cocoa breadbasket.”
- Marcelo Dorea (M3I Capital): “The market must seek alternatives to West Africa’s diminishing output.”
- Karina Gramacho (CEPLAC): “Monoculture is a gamble—we learned this in the 1980s.”
Data Point: Schmidt’s target yield (4,000 kg/ha) would be 8x higher than Ivory Coast’s average.
Brazil’s Cocoa Revolution: Industrial-Scale Farms Aim to Dethrone West Africa