China is weaponizing its dominance of critical minerals, with new data revealing drastic drops in exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony—metals vital for semiconductors, missiles, and renewable energy. Since imposing export controls in 2023 (and a full U.S. ban in December), Beijing’s opaque licensing system has throttled global supply, reshaping trade flows and sparking a price surge.
By the Numbers: China’s Export Squeeze
| Mineral | Q1 2025 Exports | Year-on-Year Drop | Key Use Cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antimony | 3,200 tons | ▼57% | Flame retardants, munitions |
| Germanium | 8.5 tons | ▼39% | Infrared optics, fiber optics |
| Gallium | 4.1 tons (March) | Lowest since Oct 2023 | Chipmaking, 5G |
Strategic Shifts
- Europe Cut Off: Germany and Belgium received their first antimony shipments in 5 months, but volumes remain 90% below pre-control levels. The Netherlands has been frozen out since September.
- U.S. Blackout: Zero shipments of all three metals since 2023—a deliberate chokehold on American defense and tech sectors.
- Price Spiral: Global gallium prices doubled in 2024, while antimony hit a 12-year high, incentivizing Chinese producers to hoard supply.
Why This Matters
- Military Vulnerability: Antimony is essential for ammunition and armor; germanium for night-vision systems.
- Tech Bottleneck: Gallium nitride powers AI chips and radar—now at risk of shortages.
- Green Energy Threat: Solar panels and EVs rely on these metals, complicating decarbonization.
Beijing’s Endgame
- License Delays: Exporters report 3–6 month waits for approvals—longer for U.S.-bound goods.
- Rare Earth Expansion: China added 7 more minerals to its control list in April 2025, including heavy rare earths for F-35 jets and missiles.
- Domestic Boost: High global prices pad profits for Chinese firms while foreign competitors scramble.
Global Fallout
- Stockpiling: The Pentagon is racing to secure 3 years’ worth of antimony.
- Substitution Challenges: Alternatives like silicon carbide (for gallium) are less efficient and costlier.
- Mining Revival: Australia and Canada ramp up antimony projects, but full output is years away.
What’s Next?
- WTO Challenges: The U.S. and EU may file complaints, but sanctions could backfire.
- Covert Trade: Smuggling networks are expanding via Vietnam and Malaysia.
- Tech Cold War: China’s controls could spur a Chip-4 Alliance supply chain overhaul.
China’s Mineral Stranglehold Tightens as Export Controls Crush Global Supply