Tupras Resumes Russian Urals Imports as Prices Dip Below G7 Cap

Key Developments:

• 🛢️ Back to Urals: Turkey’s largest refiner, Tupras, has resumed buying Russian Urals crude after a pause since February 2024 due to U.S. sanctions.
• 💰 Price-Driven Shift: Urals fell below $60/barrel (G7 price cap), making it economically viable despite sanctions risks.
• 🚢 Shipments Confirmed: At least two April-loading Urals cargoes en route to Tupras’ Izmit refinery (225,800 bpd capacity).

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Why It Matters:

1. Sanctions Loophole:
   • Tupras leverages non-Western shipping/insurance to comply with G7 rules.
   • U.S. has sanctioned 45+ tankers since October for cap violations—but Tupras appears to stay clear.
2. Turkey’s Reliance:
   • Russian crude made up 65% of Turkey’s oil imports in Jan-Nov 2024.
   • Tupras’ pivot to Brazilian, Guyanese, and African crude proved costlier.
3. Market Impact:
   • Urals discounts widen as Indian refiners also ramp up purchases.
   • G7 price cap losing teeth as more buyers exploit sub-$60 deals.

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What’s Next?

• U.S. Response: Treasury may expand tanker blacklist if Urals trade surges.
• Tupras’ Strategy: Could blend Urals with alternative crudes to dilute sanctions exposure.
• Global Flows: Russia’s oil revenue stable despite Western efforts to curb it.