Market Update: Soybeans Retreat as China Demand Falters, Wheat and Corn Dip on Weather Relief

Price Movements (May 14 Close):

• 🌱 Soybeans (CBOT Sv1): $10.36/bushel (-5¾¢), pulling back from 7-week highs on weak Chinese demand and Brazil’s record harvest.
• 🌽 Corn (Cv1): $4.81¼/bushel (-3¾¢), supported by Portugal export sale but pressured by slow global buying.
• 🌾 Wheat (Wv1): $5.42/bushel (-5½¢), extending losses as U.S. Plains rain forecasts ease drought fears.

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Key Drivers:

1. Soybean Struggles:
   • China’s Tariff Standoff: Buyers shun U.S. soybeans, opting for cheaper Brazilian supplies.
   • Brazil’s Harvest Pressure: Record output floods global markets, capping price rallies.
2. Corn’s Mixed Signals:
   • Portugal Purchase: 120K metric tons of U.S. corn provided brief support.
   • Demand Vacuum: Global buyers await new-crop arrivals from South America.
3. Wheat Weather Relief:
   • Rain Forecasts: Expected showers in U.S. Plains, France, and Germany boost crop prospects.
   • USDA Ratings: 47% of U.S. winter wheat rated good-to-excellent (down 1% weekly).

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Trade War Impact:

• Trump’s Tariffs: Buyers avoid U.S. ag goods amid global trade uncertainty.
• Dollar Weakness: Near 3-year lows (.DXY) failed to offset demand concerns.

What’s Next?

• Soybeans: Watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s tariff retaliation.
• Corn: Planting progress (USDA update next Monday) could shift sentiment.
• Wheat: If rains materialize, prices may test $5.30/bushel support.