Russian Wheat Prices Dip Slightly Amid Mixed Crop Conditions

Market Update:

• 📉 Price Drop: Russian 12.5% protein wheat fell 1–1–4/ton to $250–253 FOB (May delivery).
• 📊 Export Volumes:
  • Weekly shipments: 450K tons (vs. 420K prior week).
  • April forecast: 1.6M–1.9M tons (vs. 5M tons in April 2024).

Weather Impact:

• ❄️ Frost Scare: Brief -3°C to -6°C temps in Black Earth Region caused minimal damage.
• ☀️ Heat Risks: Rising temps in Central/Volga regions may deplete soil moisture, threatening sprouts.
• 🌱 Crop Health: 93% of winter grains rated normal, per Deputy PM Patrushev.

Why It Matters:

1. Global Supply: Russia (world’s top wheat exporter) faces volatile yields, which could tighten 2024/25 stocks.
2. Price Pressure: Competitive Russian wheat may cap global price rallies, but weather remains a wildcard.
3. Trade Flow Shift: Lower April exports reflect logistical hurdles and post-harvest lull.

What’s Next?

• Harvest Forecasts: Analysts weigh heat stress against frost resilience—no upward revisions yet.
• Black Sea Risks: War-related shipping disruptions could resurface.
• EU/Ukraine Watch: Competitive pricing may squeeze rival exporters.