Kazakhstan’s Oil Output Dips but Remains Above OPEC+ Quota Amid Tensions

Kazakhstan’s crude oil production fell 3% in early April but remains above its OPEC+ quota, exacerbating tensions within the alliance as the country struggles to rein in overproduction.

Key Data:

• 📉 April 1–13 Output: ~1.82M bpd (down from March’s average).
• 🎯 OPEC+ Quota: 1.473M bpd (still exceeded despite decline).
• 🔧 Main Cause: Lower production at Chevron’s Tengiz field (down ~66K bpd).

Why It Matters:

1. OPEC+ Frustration:
   • Kazakhstan has consistently overproduced, angering members like Saudi Arabia.
   • March output was 37K bpd above quota, per OPEC data.
2. Export Challenges:
   • CPC Pipeline disruptions (Ukrainian drone attacks, Russian restrictions) complicate shipments.
   • CPC flows partially restored after March bottlenecks.
3. Market Impact:
   • Continued overproduction undermines OPEC+ supply cuts, weighing on oil prices.

What’s Next?

• Kazakhstan’s Pledge: Vows to comply in April and compensate for past overproduction.
• OPEC+ Pressure: If Kazakhstan fails, the group may enforce stricter compliance measures.
• Tengiz Field: Further declines could help align output with quotas—but long-term cuts are uncertain.