Argentina’s Soybean Harvest Drowns in Deluge: Rains Threaten 48M-Ton Crop

Argentina’s record soybean harvest is at risk as torrential rains leave fields waterlogged, delaying combines and threatening crop quality in the world’s top exporter of soy oil and meal. The 2024/25 harvest, pegged at 48.6 million tons, is now 4% behind schedule—with farmers facing the slowest sales pace in a decade.

Key Crisis Points:

• 🌧️ Weather Woes:
  • March downpours + recent storms submerged fields, making access roads impassable.
  • High humidity risks fungal rot and pod splitting, degrading yields.
• 📉 Harvest Delays:
  • Only 20% of expected soybeans sold (vs. typical pace)—weakest in 10 years.
  • Combines stalled; fog/mist further complicate fieldwork.
• 🌤️ Glimmer of Hope:
  • Forecasts suggest drier conditions post-April 15, potentially salvaging late harvest.

Why It Matters:

1. Global Supply Chain: Argentina supplies ~40% of world’s soy meal—any shortfall could spike feed prices.
2. Economic Blow: Slow sales worsen dollar shortages in crisis-hit Argentina (soy exports = key FX source).
3. Farmer Stress: Already grappling with high export taxes, producers now face quality discounts.

Quotes From the Ground:

• “Fields are oversaturated. Everything is wet—harvesting is a nightmare.”
  — Germán Heinzenknecht, Applied Climatology
• “Rot and yield losses are inevitable if rains persist.”
  — Cristian Russo, Rosario Grains Exchange

What’s Next?

• Race Against Time: Farmers must harvest before rains return in late April.
• Market Impact: Any crop damage could lift CBOT soy futures, now trading near 4-month lows.
• Policy Pressure: Government may face calls to ease export taxes to incentivize sales.