U.S. corn inventories are tightening faster than expected, the USDA announced Thursday, citing stronger-than-forecast exports and record Mexican demand—even as President Trump’s trade wars cloud the outlook for agricultural markets.
Key USDA Revisions:
🌽 Corn:
2024-25 ending stocks cut to 1.47B bushels (vs. 1.54B in March).
Exports raised to 2.55B bushels (up 100M bushels), driven by Mexican drought demand.
Global stocks at decade lows (287.65M metric tons).
🌱 Soybeans:
U.S. stocks trimmed to 375M bushels, but global supplies rose (122.47M tons).
Market Impact:
Corn futures (Cv1) jumped near a 6-week high on tightening supply fears.
Mexico’s imports hiked to record 25M tons, reflecting crop stress and reliance on U.S. supply.
Trade War Wildcards:
China’s Absence: Despite Trump’s tariff pause, Beijing continues to shun U.S. corn/wheat.
Soybean Glut: Rising global stocks offset bullish U.S. data, keeping prices subdued.
What’s Next?
Planting Progress: Farmers may boost corn acreage (12-year high) as soy margins weaken.
Weather Risks: Drought in Mexico and U.S. Midwest could further squeeze supplies.
Tariff Fallout: If Trump reimposes ag tariffs, export momentum could stall.