Cocoa prices surged Wednesday, staging a dramatic intraday recovery from five-month lows, while sugar extended losses as markets weighed Trump’s partial tariff pause against persistent supply concerns.
Key Market Moves (May 15):
🍫 Cocoa (NY CCc1): +7.7% to 8,317/ton after hitting 7,613 (lowest since Dec 2024).
☕ Coffee: Robusta flat at $4,797/ton; arabica dipped 0.3% but jumped 3% post-session on tariff news.
🍬 Sugar (SBc1): -2.2% to 17.91¢/lb (1-month low) as Brazil’s harvest pressure outweighed tariff relief.
Why Cocoa Rebounded:
Technical Bounce: Oversold conditions triggered buybacks after a 20% price collapse in two weeks.
Ivory Coast Worries: Traders fear weak mid-crop yields in the world’s top producer.
Demand Test Ahead: Next week’s Q1 global cocoa grind data will signal consumption trends.
Tariff Impact: Mixed Signals
Pause Relief: Trump’s 90-day halt on new tariffs (excluding China) lifted risk sentiment.
Coffee’s Dilemma: 10% baseline U.S. import duties remain, keeping cost pressures alive for consumers.
Sugar’s Slide: Focus stays on Brazil’s record output, overshadowing trade policy shifts.
What’s Next?
Cocoa: Volatility likely until Ivory Coast mid-crop clarity emerges.
Coffee: Arabica’s post-session rally tests whether tariff optimism can offset weak demand.
Sugar: Prices may stabilize near 17.50¢/lb unless Brazil’s harvest surprises.