Chicago soybean futures rallied Tuesday, recovering from a four-month low as traders looked past trade war jitters to focus on upcoming USDA reports and adverse Midwest weather. Corn and wheat also edged higher, supported by a weaker dollar and tightening supply concerns.
Market Highlights (April 9 Close):
Soybeans (Sv1): +9¾¢ to $9.92¾/bushel, rebounding after Monday’s December-low.
Corn (Cv1): +4½¢ to $4.69/bushel on strong export demand and delayed planting.
Wheat (Wv1): +3½¢ to $5.40/bushel as cold, wet weather threatened Plains crops.
Key Drivers:
Technical Recovery: Oversold conditions triggered buybacks after last week’s tariff-driven selloff.
USDA Report (Apr 11): Traders anticipate lower corn ending stocks and watch for soybean demand clues.
Weather Disruptions: Heavy Midwest rains slowed field work, while frost risks lingered in the Plains.
Dollar Weakness: Cheaper U.S. grains attracted global buyers.
Trade War Context:
Markets shrugged off China’s 34% soybean tariffs (now priced in), with focus shifting to EU/Japan trade talks.
Analysts warn volatility may return if U.S.-China tensions escalate further.
What’s Next?
USDA Data: Will dictate near-term price direction.
Planting Delays: Extended rains could slash corn acreage, tightening supplies.
Export Demand: China’s tariff response remains a wildcard for soybeans.