Chile’s Codelco, the world’s top copper producer, is pushing to maximize output in 2024 after years of setbacks, with CEO Ruben Alvarado announcing plans to hit 1.39 million metric tons—the upper end of its forecasted range—while preparing a return to bond markets to fund growth.
Key Highlights:
📈 Production Rebound: After hitting 25-year lows in 2023, Codelco expects a stronger 2024, citing Q1 operational improvements and project ramp-ups.
💵 Bond Market Comeback: The state miner plans to tap “attractive” debt markets soon but is weighing timing to preserve its investment-grade rating.
🇺🇸 US Tariff Hedging: Codelco may continue spot copper shipments to the US, mirroring Q1’s surge as buyers preempt potential Trump tariffs.
Why It Matters:
Supply Boost Needed: Codelco’s recovery could ease tight global copper markets amid surging EV and grid demand.
Debt Challenges: The bond move follows $4B in 2023 losses; success hinges on investor confidence in its turnaround.
Trade War Calculus: US-bound shipments (motivated by long-term contracts, per Alvarado) face uncertainty if China tariffs redirect surplus metal.
Critical Context:
2023 Crisis: Output plunged to 1.325M tons due to mine delays and accidents.
2024 Targets: 1.39M tons would mark a 5% YoY increase—but still below pre-2020 levels.
Bond Strategy: Codelco must balance 20B+ debt load∗∗with∗∗3.9B planned 2024 investments.