The global coffee, cocoa, and sugar markets plunged to multi-month lows Monday as President Trump’s escalating tariffs sparked recession fears, with Vietnam’s robusta coffee hit hardest by a 46% U.S. levy—triggering the worst selloff in months.
Market Freefall:
☕ Coffee Carnage:
Robusta (LRCc2) crashed 6.4% to $4,800/ton (lowest since Dec 2024).
Arabica (KCc1) dropped 5.7% to $3.448/lb (2-month low).
Vietnam (top robusta producer) faces 46% tariffs, while Indonesia confronts 32% duties.
🍫 Cocoa Collapse:
London cocoa (LCCc2) sank 5.6% to £6,014/ton (5-month low).
Ivory Coast mid-crop worries persist despite 10.5% higher port arrivals.
🍬 Sugar Slump:
Raw sugar (SBc1) dipped 0.8% to 18.68¢/lb (1-month low).
Why It’s Happening:
Trade War Fallout: Trump’s 10% baseline tariffs (up to 50%+ for China) threaten global demand.
U.S. Dominance: As the #1 coffee/chocolate consumer, even minor U.S. demand drops ripple worldwide.
Recession Fears: Hedgepoint warns tariffs could “accelerate price declines” amid economic uncertainty.
What’s Next?
Coffee: Watch Vietnam’s stockpiles—if exports stall, prices may rebound.
Cocoa: Ivory Coast weather remains a wildcard for mid-crop yields.
Sugar: Brazil’s harvest progress could offset losses if tariffs ease.