Brent crude futures and options trading surged to an all-time high on Friday, eclipsing even COVID-19 pandemic levels, as investors scrambled to navigate a perfect storm of trade war fears, OPEC+ supply hikes, and recession risks.
A staggering 4.067 million contracts changed hands on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), surpassing the previous record set during the 2020 oil crisis. The surge came as Brent prices cratered to four-year lows, posting their worst weekly drop in 18 months amid:
Trump’s sweeping tariffs (including 34% on China),
OPEC+ accelerating output hikes (now 411,000 bpd in May, up from 135,000 bpd),
Banks raising recession alarms.
By Monday, Brent briefly plunged to $62.52/barrel—a level last seen in 2021—as Trump threatened even steeper China tariffs and demand fears intensified.
Why It Matters:
Brent benchmarks ~75% of global crude trade, making it a real-time gauge of market panic.
Investor whiplash: Just days earlier, traders had been bullish on tight supplies and Russia/Iran sanctions risks. Now, net-long positions face a brutal unwind.
OPEC+’s gamble: Raising output amid slowing demand risks worsening the supply glut.
Trader Insights:
“The market flipped from scarcity to surplus fears overnight,” said Giovanni Staunovo (UBS).
StoneX’s Alex Hodes predicts this week’s COT data will show a sharp bearish turn, reflecting massive short positioning.