Soybeans Slide: Chicago soybean futures (Sv1) fell 0.2% to $10.09¾/bushel, on track for their biggest weekly loss (1.3%) since late February as traders brace for potential Chinese retaliation against U.S. tariffs.
Corn & Wheat Edge Up: Corn (Cv1) rose 0.2% while wheat (Wv1) gained 0.1%, supported by short-covering and relief that Mexico—the top buyer of U.S. corn—was spared from new tariffs.
Risk of Trade Disruptions: Analysts warn the 10% baseline U.S. tariff (with higher duties on China/EU) could shift global soybean demand to Brazil, the world’s top exporter, hurting American farmers.
Why It Matters:
China’s Leverage: As the largest soybean importer, China could redirect purchases to Brazil, worsening the U.S. ag export slump.
Market Sentiment: Funds dumped soybean and soyoil contracts Thursday while buying corn and wheat, reflecting tariff-driven uncertainty.
Macro Fears: Trump’s tariffs spooked equities and oil markets, raising recession risks that could further dampen commodity demand.
What’s Next:
Watch for China’s response—will it impose retaliatory ag tariffs or boost Brazilian imports?
U.S. planting progress (next USDA report) may shift focus back to supply fundamentals.