Deal Activity Shifts: Mining giants are pivoting to joint ventures and asset sales over full-scale M&A, with Q1 sector deals down 27% YoY to $15B (LSEG). Major miners like BHP (-26%), Rio Tinto (-23%), and Glencore (-42%) face stalled earnings amid China’s slowdown.
Copper’s Contradiction: While long-term demand for copper (power grids, EVs) is robust—requiring $200B in new investments (WoodMac)—short-term headwinds from China’s weak property sector and Trump’s tariffs deter megadeals.
Strategic Moves: BHP’s $10.8B Chile investment and Vicuña JV with Lundin Mining signal a focus on high-grade assets, while Glencore’s failed Teck bid highlights regulatory hurdles.
Why It Matters:
China’s Slump: With China consuming 55% of global copper and 50% of aluminum, its tepid infrastructure demand leaves miners scrambling for alternatives.
Scale Over Splurging: Companies prioritize targeted partnerships (e.g., BHP-Lundin) to derisk portfolios amid volatile markets, avoiding pricey takeovers.
Investor Pressure: Share buybacks and dividends no longer satisfy shareholders, pushing miners toward growth investments in critical minerals.
Quotable:
“M&A cycles start when miners either have too much cash or too little growth. We’re in the latter now.” — Christel Bories, Eramet Chair
“BHP’s Anglo American bid was a wake-up call: consolidation is coming, but in bite-sized pieces.” — Tom Price, Liberum analyst
What’s Next:
Watch for copper-focused JVs as miners chase energy transition metals.
China’s stimulus efforts could revive base metals demand—or fall flat.
Trump’s trade policies may accelerate regional supply chain reshuffling.