Russia has ordered the closure of two moorings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, a critical hub for Kazakhstan’s oil exports operated by U.S. giants Chevron and ExxonMobil, escalating tensions over Kazakhstan’s repeated breaches of OPEC+ production quotas. The move could slash CPC’s export capacity by over 50% if prolonged, risking disruptions to 1% of global oil supply and compounding geopolitical strains as the U.S. threatens tariffs on Russian oil buyers.
Key Developments:
Mooring Closures: Russia’s transport watchdog halted two of three moorings at the CPC terminal, citing “violations” linked to a December oil spill. The terminal handles 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Kazakh oil, primarily from Chevron’s Tengiz field.
OPEC+ Quota Conflict: Kazakhstan’s March output hit a record 2.17 million bpd, exceeding its OPEC+ limit. The country struggles to rein in production amid costly expansions by foreign firms.
Storage Limits: Traders warn that without a resolution within five days, Kazakhstan may need to cut production due to limited port storage.
Geopolitical Context:
U.S. Tariff Threat: The closure followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers, intensifying pressure on Moscow amid stalled Ukraine peace talks.
Strategic Leverage: Russia’s action underscores its influence over Central Asian energy routes, with prior CPC disruptions in 2022–2023 linked to geopolitical maneuvering.
Industry Impact:
Supply Risks: CPC exported 63 million tons (1.4 million bpd) in 2024. A prolonged shutdown could tighten global markets, already strained by OPEC+ cuts and rising demand.
Kazakhstan’s Dilemma: Despite claims of “uninterrupted” flows, sources say production cuts are imminent. Chevron’s Tengiz field, which pumps 700,000 bpd, faces operational challenges if exports stall.
Background:
CPC Ownership: The consortium is led by Russia’s Transneft (24%) and Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas (19%), with Chevron and Exxon holding significant stakes.
Historical Disruptions: Russia has previously cited “technical issues” to curb CPC flows, including after a 2023 Ukrainian drone strike on pipeline infrastructure.