Tin prices surged to two-week highs on Friday, fueled by speculative bets that a 6.8-magnitude earthquake near Myanmar’s Mandalay could delay the restart of production in Wa State, the country’s primary mining region responsible for 70% of its tin output. Benchmark three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped 2.5% to $36,140/ton, nearing mid-2022 peaks, as traders priced in prolonged supply disruptions.
Key Drivers:
Geopolitical Uncertainty: The quake’s epicenter was 425 km from Wa State, where mines have been idled since August 2023. While initial reports show minimal damage to mining areas, fears of delayed restarts (slated for April 1 talks) spooked markets.
Global Supply Squeeze: Tin prices have soared 24% year-to-date due to Myanmar’s prolonged halt and Alphamin Resources pausing operations at the world’s third-largest mine in Congo amid rebel advances.
Inventory Crunch: LME tin stocks hit 9-month lows, with 40–50% of warrants controlled by a single entity, tightening near-term supply.
Market Reactions:
The LME cash/three-month spread flipped to a 185/ton premium∗∗(vs.a 193 discount in early March), signaling immediate scarcity.
Analysts caution that even without earthquake impacts, resuming Wa State output could take months, while Congo’s conflict blocks near-term solutions.
Broader Context:
Myanmar supplies over 50% of China’s tin imports, critical for electronics and solar sectors. With Wa State’s restart timeline unclear and Congo unstable, traders brace for sustained volatility.