India will allow mills to export 1 million metric tons of sugar in the 2024/25 season, rejecting speculation of export curbs despite lower output forecasts, as the government asserts sufficient stockpiles to meet domestic demand and ethanol needs.
Key Details:
Output vs. Demand:
2024/25 Production: Estimated at 26.4 million tons (down from previous forecasts).
Domestic Consumption: 28 million tons, with 8 million tons of carryover stocks from October 2024 ensuring supply stability.
Ethanol Buffer: Surplus stocks also allocated to ethanol blending, a key pillar of India’s energy strategy.
Export Assurance:
After exporting 1 million tons, carryover stocks for the 2025/26 season (starting October) will remain at 5.4 million tons—enough to cover over two months of domestic demand.
“No export restrictions are needed. Next year’s output will surpass this year’s,” a government source confirmed.
Market Dynamics:
Regulatory Oversight: The government fixes cane prices, open-market sale quotas, and export limits to balance farmer incomes and consumer affordability.
Price Pressures: Last year’s oversupply caused domestic prices to dip below production costs, delaying payments to farmers.
Industry Context:
Global Role: India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, uses export policies to stabilize global prices while prioritizing food security.
Speculation Quashed: Recent output revisions by industry groups had raised fears of export bans, but surplus stocks and robust 2025/26 projections alleviated concerns.