Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish copper price forecasts on Wednesday, predicting that U.S. tariffs on imports will prevent a domestic stockpile surge in Q3 2025 while global supply tightens.
Key Forecasts & Drivers:
Tariff Impact: Expected U.S. import tariffs (under Trump’s March probe) will slash domestic copper inventories by 30,000–40,000 tons/month starting mid-Q2, averting a Q3 surplus.
Price Divergence: U.S. copper futures hit record highs as tariffs widen the COMEX-LME premium, reflecting bets on tighter U.S. supply.
Global Tightness: Goldman anticipates severe supply constraints later in 2025, driven by demand for EVs, defense tech, and grid infrastructure.
Market Movements (As of April 3):
LME Copper: Fell 1.7% to $9,944/ton, pressured by tariff uncertainty ahead of April 2 policy updates.
COMEX Futures: Surged to new highs, with traders pricing in tariff-driven import restrictions.
Strategic Insights:
Goldman’s Note: “Tariffs will accelerate U.S. stock drawdowns, aligning with global deficits. COMEX premiums over LME will persist.”
Trump’s Agenda: The probe aims to revive U.S. copper production, critical for energy transition and national security.