Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, will reduce export contracts for the 2025/26 season to 1.3 million metric tons—a 24% cut from the usual 1.7 million tons—as climate shocks, aging farms, and rampant disease cripple production for the second consecutive year.
Key Drivers of the Crisis:
Swollen Shoot Disease: A fatal virus with no cure has infected ~50% of cocoa fields, devastating yields across all 13 growing regions.
Aging Plantations: 70% of orchards are over 20 years old, making them vulnerable to disease and extreme weather.
Climate Pressures: Erratic rainfall and droughts have compounded losses, with April–June weather critical for recovery.
Production Collapse:
2022/23 Output: 2.3 million tons.
2023/24 & 2024/25: Fell to ~1.75 million tons each season.
Structural Decline: Officials warn production may not rebound to historic averages (1.7M tons main crop) for years.
Global Implications:
Ivory Coast supplies 45% of global cocoa, and export cuts could further tighten markets already facing record-high prices.
Chocolate Costs: Retail prices may surge as supply shortages ripple through the $100B chocolate industry.
Long-Term Solutions:
Farm Rejuvenation: Replanting disease-resistant trees is critical, but requires years to mature.
Risk Management: “We won’t take chances—1.3M tons is a realistic target,” a CCC source said.