The CEOs of the world’s largest commodity traders—Vitol, Mercuria, Trafigura, and Gunvor—warned that lifting sanctions on Russian energy would be a slow, uneven process, with only limited short-term restoration of oil and gas flows beyond Asia. Speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit, executives signaled caution toward resuming Russian trade despite shifting U.S. policies under Trump.
Key Takeaways:
Timeline Uncertain: Vitol’s Russell Hardy predicted Europe’s sanctions easing could take 1–2 years, with fragmented pipeline flows as some nations opt out.
U.S. vs. EU Divide: Trafigura’s Richard Holtum suggested the U.S. might lift sanctions first, while EU/UK restrictions linger.
Russia’s Self-Reliance: Gunvor’s Torbjörn Törnqvist noted Russia has built its own trading networks since 2022, reducing reliance on Western intermediaries.
Banking Access Priority: Russia may focus on regaining SWIFT access in negotiations to ease trade bottlenecks.
Geopolitical Shifts:
Trump’s administration is drafting plans for Russian sanctions relief to broker a Ukraine peace deal, but EU officials vow to avoid Russian oil regardless.
Mercuria’s Marco Dunand said traders would “consider” re-engaging with Russia only if sanctions dissolve entirely—a scenario seen as unlikely soon.
Market Realities:
Even if sanctions lift, Russia may shun long-term contracts with Western traders, preferring its controlled systems to ship oil.
Analysts warn of structural barriers: rebuilding European buyer trust and untangling payment hurdles will take years.