Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean production forecast has been cut by 2.3 million metric tons to 165.9 million tons due to worsening drought in the south, consultancy AgRural reported Monday. However, strong yields in top-growing regions could still deliver a record harvest.
Key Updates:
Rio Grande do Sul Hit Hard: The southern state’s soybean output is now projected at 15 million tons, down 3 million tons from February, with further cuts possible as dry conditions persist.
Mato Grosso Offsets Losses: Brazil’s largest soy-producing state is set for a record 49.5 million tons—more than Argentina’s entire crop—helping balance national supply.
Corn Holds Steady: The second corn crop forecast remains at 87.9 million tons, though irregular rains raise concerns. Total corn output is slightly up at 121.8 million tons.
Why It Matters:
Global Supply Risks: As the world’s top soybean exporter, Brazil’s shortfall could tighten global stocks, impacting food and feed markets.
Farmer Strains: Southern growers report yield drops and grain quality issues, while Mato Grosso’s success highlights regional climate disparities.
Corn Watch: Delayed rains during planting threaten Brazil’s key second corn crop, which fuels export markets mid-year.
What’s Next?
Further Cuts Possible: If drought continues, Rio Grande do Sul’s estimates may shrink again.
Market Reaction: Traders will monitor whether rising Mato Grosso supplies fully offset southern losses.
Corn Uncertainty: Dry spells in Paraná and Goiás could pressure the critical safrinha crop.