OPEC+ is expected to move forward with a planned oil production increase in May, despite ongoing efforts to enforce compliance among members who previously exceeded output quotas, according to four sources familiar with the matter.
The group, which includes OPEC, Russia, and allied producers, is scheduled to boost output by 135,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month—the second consecutive monthly hike as it gradually unwinds deep supply cuts implemented since 2022.
Key Developments:
Compensation cuts from seven overproducing members (effective until June 2026) are expected to offset the planned increases, easing market concerns.
Analysts suggest summer demand growth and low global inventories support the gradual production rise.
Market Outlook:
Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen noted that inventory levels and seasonal demand justify the phased output restoration.
RBC’s Helima Croft highlighted the compensation cuts’ role in balancing the hikes, questioning their net impact.
Russia’s Alexander Novak left the door open for a policy reversal if market conditions deteriorate.
OPEC+ ministers will convene on April 5 to finalize the decision.