Chicago wheat futures jumped 3.3% on Monday, hitting a two-week high, as windstorms in the U.S. Midwest and Plains stoked fears of crop damage, while Russia’s reduced export forecasts tightened global supply expectations. Corn edged higher, while soybeans fell on weaker-than-expected processing demand.
Key Drivers:
Weather Impact: Severe windstorms and tornadoes over the weekend threatened winter wheat crops, with analysts warning of potential field damage.
Russian Exports: Consultancy Sovecon estimates a drop in Russia’s March wheat shipments as the government curbs sales to stabilize domestic food prices.
Dollar Weakness: The dollar’s slide to five-month lows boosted U.S. grain competitiveness in global markets.
Price Movements:
Wheat: CBOT most-active contract rose 11.5 cents to $5.68½/bushel (highest since Feb. 27).
Corn: Gained 2.5 cents to $4.61/bushel on steady export sales.
Soybeans: Fell 0.5 cents to $10.15½/bushel after NOPA reported the smallest U.S. crush in five months (186.2 million bushels for February).
Market Context:
Soybean Pressures: Weak crush data overshadowed China’s new stimulus plan aimed at boosting domestic consumption, which could have lifted demand.
Russian Strategy: Moscow’s efforts to limit wheat exports aim to curb domestic bread and flour inflation but risk ceding market share to U.S. suppliers.