Chicago soybean and corn futures edged lower on Friday, heading for weekly declines amid escalating trade tensions and ample South American supplies. Trade War Impact:
The U.S.-led tariff escalation, including retaliatory EU and Canadian duties, threatens to disrupt agricultural trade flows. The EU may reinstate a 25% duty on U.S. corn and consider soybean tariffs, compounding pressures from President Trump’s policies.
“The supply side for soybeans is bearish. South America’s big harvests and tariffs could dent U.S. demand,” said a Singapore-based trader.
Supply Adjustments:
Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop estimate was trimmed to 46.5 million metric tons (from 47.5 million), while corn forecasts fell to 44.5 million tons (from 46 million), offering limited price support.
Russia’s IKAR slashed its wheat export outlook to 41 million tons (from 42.5 million), buoying wheat markets.
Fund Activity:
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, wheat, soybeans, and soymeal on Thursday but sold soyoil contracts.