U.S. oil production is expected to peak between 2027 and 2030, Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub projected at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. The forecast aligns with ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance’s view of a production plateau by the decade’s end, signaling a broader industry shift away from unchecked growth.
While the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts record output of 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 13.73 million bpd in 2026, Hollub emphasized that Wall Street’s focus on shareholder returns over aggressive drilling has slowed growth. “The era of unfettered expansion is ending,” she noted, highlighting Occidental’s pivot toward optimizing conventional wells, which account for a third of its production.
Occidental is leveraging carbon dioxide injection to boost recovery rates, with pilot tests showing shale reservoir efficiency could double from 10% to 20%. This innovation aims to extend the lifespan of existing assets amid tightening capital discipline. The strategy contrasts with President Donald Trump’s push to ramp up fossil fuel output and lower consumer prices, underscoring the tension between policy goals and market realities.