China has increased its 2025 grain production target to around 700 million metric tons and expanded its budget for grain stockpiling, as part of efforts to strengthen food security amid escalating trade tensions with key partners. The world’s largest importer of agricultural goods is seeking to reduce its reliance on foreign supplies, particularly from the U.S. and Brazil, by boosting domestic output and reserves.
The government raised its 2025 budget for stockpiling grain, edible oils, and other materials by 6.1% to 131.66 billion yuan ($18.12 billion), according to an official report. Additionally, it allocated 54.05 billion yuan in subsidies for agricultural insurance premiums to support farmers.
The new production target follows a record harvest of 706.5 million tons in 2024, up from the previous year’s goal of 650 million tons. “With the implementation of the food crop production strategy of improving farmland management and increasing the application of technology, we have the foundation and support necessary to attain this goal,” stated a National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) report.
Analysts noted that the target is a “bottom-line goal” and not overly ambitious, given last year’s record output. However, China has a more ambitious long-term goal of increasing production by 50 million tons by 2030, which would require a harvest of around 745 million tons.
Beijing also signaled plans to support the cattle and dairy industries, which have faced oversupply issues, and to improve storage facilities for grain, cotton, sugar, meat, and fertilizer.
The increased focus on food security reflects China’s preparation for prolonged trade disputes and geopolitical challenges. “China’s increase in its stockpile budget is part of efforts to establish a minimum baseline or to prevent food reserves from falling to a certain level,” said Genevieve Donnellon-May, a researcher at the Oxford Global Society.
To reduce reliance on imported soybeans, China plans to expand insurance coverage for soybean farmers and promote the use of alternative animal feed, such as rapeseed and cotton meal. The country imports about 80% of its soybeans, primarily from the U.S. and Brazil.
The report also emphasized the need to refine grain pricing mechanisms and maintain minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat, ensuring stable incomes for farmers and safeguarding domestic production.