U.S. retail gasoline prices are expected to climb in the coming weeks as new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration raise the cost of energy imports, according to traders and analysts. The tariffs, which took effect on Tuesday, include a 10% duty on Canadian energy, a 25% levy on all Mexican imports, and a doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%.
The Northeast, which relies heavily on Canadian shipments of gasoline, heating oil, and diesel, is likely to see the first and most significant price increases. Wholesale gasoline prices in the region have already surged, with retail prices expected to rise by 20 to 40 cents per gallon, according to fuel experts.
Canadian refiner Irving Oil, the largest supplier of refined fuels to the Northeast, has increased prices to reflect the tariff costs. The company’s 320,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick, exports more than half of its finished fuels to the region.
“There’s simply no simple replacement for the products shipped from Irving Oil’s refinery,” TACenergy noted in a market commentary, highlighting the region’s dependence on Canadian imports.
Midwestern refiners, which process 70% of the 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of Canadian oil imported by the U.S., are also expected to pass on higher costs to consumers. Parts of the Midwest could see pump prices rise by 10 to 15 cents over the next few weeks, according to Alex Ryan, energy director at Kansas-based Oasis Energy.
The U.S. Gulf Coast, which imports over 450,000 bpd of Mexican oil, may experience delayed price increases as crude must first be refined into fuel products.
While average U.S. pump prices remained steady at $3.099 per gallon on Tuesday, industry representatives warned that the tariffs would ultimately hurt consumers and energy security.
“Imposing tariffs on energy, refined products, and petrochemical imports will not make us more energy secure or lower costs for consumers,” said Chet Thompson, CEO of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers.
The tariffs, intended to boost the U.S. economy, could instead lead to higher costs for consumers and complicate trade relations with North American neighbors.