OPEC+ is grappling with whether to proceed with a planned oil output increase in April or maintain current production levels, as the group faces a complex global supply landscape shaped by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, according to eight sources within the alliance.
The coalition, which typically confirms production policies a month in advance, has until early March to finalize its April decision. However, no consensus has yet emerged. While some members, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia, are pushing for the planned output hike, others like Saudi Arabia favor delaying the increase, the sources said.
The decision is further complicated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed pressure on OPEC to lower oil prices. Prices have since retreated to around 73 a barrel, buoyed by hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and increased Russian oil flows. However, Trump’s recent moves to curb Iran’s oil exports and revoke Chevron’s license in Venezuela have added upward pressure to prices.
Adding to the uncertainty are Trump’s proposed global tariffs, which could dampen oil demand and further cloud the supply outlook. The interplay of these bullish and bearish factors has made OPEC+’s decision-making process for April particularly challenging, the sources noted.
OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd) since 2022 to stabilize the market. In December, the group extended its latest round of cuts through the first quarter of 2025, delaying the planned output increase to April. Under the current agreement, the gradual unwinding of 2.2 million bpd in cuts would begin in April, with the UAE set to increase production by 138,000 bpd that month.
Analysts, including Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets, suggest OPEC+ may delay the output hike until the second half of 2025 due to ongoing sanctions and tariff uncertainties.