Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, has projected a nearly 10% decrease in coffee receipts from farmers in 2025 compared to the previous year, estimating around 5.6 million 60-kg bags.
Key Highlights:
Impact of Weather Conditions:
Cooxupe’s President, Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo, stated that dry and hot weather last year has adversely affected coffee production in the Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo regions, despite farmers implementing better crop care.
Melo noted, “Farmers even bought more crop inputs since coffee prices were good; they took good care of the trees, but the crop will still be smaller.”
Recent Improvements:
There has been a recent improvement in coffee fields following beneficial rains over the last two months, which may lead to a slight upward revision of estimates in the future. However, this is not expected to change the overall context of limited supplies from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer.
Export Projections:
Cooxupe anticipates exporting 4.9 million bags of coffee in 2025, slightly down from 5 million bags in 2024. The cooperative represents approximately 10% of Brazil’s total annual coffee exports.
Market Context:
Despite average production levels in the last two harvests, Brazilian coffee exports reached a record high last year. Analysts suggest that high coffee prices incentivized farmers, cooperatives, and merchants to sell off existing stocks.