Analysts predict that Russian wheat exports will significantly underperform against government quotas in the upcoming months, with estimates suggesting deliveries may not exceed 8.1 million tons by the end of the 2024/25 season. This forecast was provided by Igor Pavensky, head of analysis at grain shipment company Rusagrotrans.
Key Highlights:
Export Quota Overview:
The Russian government permits traders to export freely during the first half of the season (July to February) but imposes strict quotas thereafter.
From February 15 to the end of the season on June 30, the export quota is set at 10.6 million tons for wheat and meslin. This quota is significantly lower than the 29 million tons established for the previous season.
Reasons for Lower Quota:
The reduction in the export quota follows a record export period in the first half of the current season and is influenced by an anticipated decline in crop yields for 2024.
Export Performance:
According to Rusagrotrans, wheat exports from July to January reached a record 32.2 million tons, slightly surpassing last year’s figures by 0.4 million tons.
The forecast for total wheat exports from the start of the season to February is 34.5 million tons, down from 36.2 million tons the previous year.
Seasonal Estimates:
For the entire 2024/25 season, wheat exports are projected at 42 million tons, a decrease from last year’s total of 55.5 million tons.