Recent frigid temperatures across the U.S. Plains and Midwest are likely to have caused significant damage to the winter wheat crop, with estimates suggesting that as much as 15% of the crop may have been affected. This alarming forecast comes from the Commodity Weather Group, which highlighted the risks posed by a recent blast of Arctic air.
Key Highlights:
Temperature Impact:
A polar vortex brought extreme cold, with temperatures plunging to minus 5 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 21 degrees Celsius) in key wheat-growing regions.
The lack of protective snowfall this winter left winter wheat particularly susceptible to freeze damage, or “winterkill.”
Affected Regions:
Approximately 65% of the hard red winter wheat belt, stretching from Montana to northern Texas, including parts of Kansas, experienced these harsh conditions.
The soft red winter wheat belt, covering Illinois, Indiana, southern Michigan, and Ohio, was also impacted, affecting about 35% of that area.
Wheat Types and Uses:
Hard red winter wheat is primarily grown in the Plains and is used for bread production.
Soft red winter wheat, produced mainly in the Midwest, is utilized for cookies and snack foods.
Damage Estimates:
Agricultural meteorologist Joe Woznicki noted that if crops were well-established, losses could be around 10% in areas experiencing winterkill.
However, in regions where crops were poorly established or where dry soils existed, losses might approach 15%.
The ultimate extent of crop loss will remain uncertain until dormant plants begin to grow again in the spring.
Production Projections:
Based on last year’s production figures, a 10% loss on 65% of the hard red winter acreage could result in a loss of approximately 52 million bushels, equating to 6.7% of the crop.
Similarly, a 10% loss on 35% of the soft red wheat acreage could lead to a reduction of about 12 million bushels, or 3.5% of production.
Current Planting Statistics:
U.S. farmers planted 34.1 million acres of winter wheat for the 2025 harvest, marking a 2% increase from the previous year.
The United States ranks as the world’s No. 5 wheat exporter.