In 2024, China’s soybean imports from the United States decreased by 5.7% compared to the previous year, with Brazilian and Argentine shipments filling the gap. This shift has further reduced the U.S. market share to below 25%, driven by concerns over a potential renewed Sino-U.S. trade war.
Key Highlights:
Record Imports:
China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of soybeans in 2024, coinciding with heightened tensions following President Donald Trump’s threats of significant tariffs on Chinese goods.
Import Statistics:
U.S. soybean shipments fell to 22.13 million tons.
In contrast, Brazilian imports rose by 6.7% to 74.65 million tons, as reported by China’s General Administration of Customs.
Recent Trends:
Despite the overall decline, U.S. shipments surged since April, with December imports rising 10.6% year-on-year to 4.25 million tons, while Brazilian imports dropped 41.1% to 2.94 million tons.
Market Dynamics:
Chinese processors have largely secured their soybean needs from Brazil due to competitive pricing and fears of impending tariffs from the U.S.
Future Expectations:
Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures, noted potential changes in global soybean trade patterns that may influence U.S. soybean purchases in 2025.
Market Shares:
Brazil’s market share in China’s soybean imports rose to 71%, while the U.S. share decreased to 21%. Argentina’s imports more than doubled to 4.1 million tons in 2024.
First-Quarter Projections:
Due to the high import volumes in 2023, China’s first-quarter soybean imports are projected to decline to 17.3-18.0 million tons, down from 18.58 million tons a year earlier.
Crushing Margins and Inventory Levels:
Weak crush margins and high inventory levels in China suggest that soybean crushers will be cautious in their purchasing decisions, as lower profitability hampers aggressive buying, according to Matthew Biggin, a Commodities Analyst at BMI.