On Wednesday, OPEC released its forecast indicating that global oil demand will continue to grow in 2026, maintaining a similar growth rate to that expected for this year. This prediction comes as the organization has revised its figures for 2024 downwards for the sixth consecutive time, primarily due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer.
Key Highlights:
2026 Demand Forecast:
OPEC predicts that oil demand will increase by 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, closely aligning with the growth of 1.45 million bpd anticipated for this year.
This forecast marks OPEC’s initial outlook for 2026 in its monthly report.
Driving Factors:
The report highlights that transportation fuels will be the primary drivers of oil demand growth in 2026, with air travel expected to expand further as both international and domestic traffic continues to rise.
Revised 2024 Demand Growth:
OPEC has adjusted its 2024 demand growth estimate to 1.5 million bpd, down from 1.61 million bpd as reported last month. This marks the sixth reduction for the 2024 forecast, which was initially projected at 2.25 million bpd in July 2024.
Comparative Industry Outlook:
OPEC’s demand outlook remains at the higher end of industry forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA), also releasing its predictions on the same day, projected a slower growth rate of 1.05 million bpd for global oil demand in 2025.