Consultancy firm StoneX announced on Thursday an upward revision of Brazil’s soybean crop forecast for the 2024-2025 season, now estimated at 171.4 million metric tons, up from the previous estimate of 166.2 million tons made in December.
Key Highlights:
Reasons for the Revision:
The increase in the forecast is attributed to higher expectations for the area planted with soybeans and improved yield estimates.
This production level represents a 14.4% increase compared to the previous season.
Context of Production:
Brazilian farmers, who are the world’s largest producers and exporters of soybeans, are anticipated to recover yields after facing adverse weather conditions in the 2023/24 season that impacted overall production.
Weather Considerations:
StoneX analyst Ana Luiza Lodi noted that while projections are optimistic, weather remains a critical factor, with the possibility of excessive rainfall at the end of the growing cycle posing risks to production.
Export Forecast:
Soybean exports for the upcoming season are now forecasted to reach 107 million tons, an increase from the previously projected 103 million tons.
Corn Production Estimates:
StoneX also slightly raised its estimate for Brazil’s total corn production for the 2024-2025 season to 128.6 million tons, up from 128.3 million tons.