China has announced the issuance of 19 million metric tons of export quotas for gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel as part of the first batch of allowances for 2025. This figure remains unchanged compared to the previous year, according to several traders and a Chinese industry consultancy.
Key Highlights:
Quota Distribution:
The state-owned oil firms Sinopec and CNPC received a combined total of 13.34 million tons, accounting for 70% of the total quotas.
Private refiner Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp was allocated 1.67 million tons in this batch.
Marine Fuel Quotas:
In addition, China has issued 8 million tons of low-sulfur marine fuel export quotas for 2025, also flat compared to the previous year. About 90% of these quotas were allocated to Sinopec and CNPC.
Export Trends:
For the first 11 months of 2024, China’s exports of refined oil products—including gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and marine bunker—totaled 54.4 million tons, reflecting a 6.3% decline compared to the same period in 2023.
Analysts from consultancy FGE anticipate that exports of all three products will average lower year-on-year in the first quarter of next year as refiners adjust their operations.
Processing Trade Quotas:
The processing trade export quotas accounted for 5.95 million tons, or 31% of the total allotted volumes. This route allows refiners to export without incurring import taxes on crude oil and export taxes on oil products, albeit under strict customs supervision.
Future Consumption Projections:
According to Sinopec, China’s oil consumption is expected to peak in 2027 at no more than 800 million tons, equivalent to 16 million barrels per day of crude oil.
There is a noted shift in demand, with diesel being gradually replaced by increasing use of liquefied natural gas, and gasoline demand declining due to the rising popularity of electric vehicles.