Sovecon, an agriculture consultancy, has projected that Russian wheat exports will decline by 17%, reaching 36.4 million tons in the 2025/26 exporting season due to a combination of poor harvests and low carry-over stocks.
Key Highlights:
Reasons for Decline:
The expected reduction is attributed to lower carry-in stocks and a projected decrease in wheat production.
This decline may be partially offset by reduced domestic feed wheat consumption, which surged this season due to poor barley and corn harvests.
Revised Export Forecast:
For the current 2024/2025 season, Sovecon has adjusted its wheat export forecast to 43.7 million metric tons, down from a previous estimate of 44.1 million metric tons.
Current Export Dynamics:
Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has been exporting at a record pace this year.
However, exports are anticipated to slow significantly when a new restrictive export quota is implemented on February 15.
Concerns Over Winter Crops:
Analysts from the ProZerno Centre reported that 37% of winter crops are in poor condition, raising concerns about future harvests.
Other analysts, including those from Sovecon and IKAR, have questioned the ProZerno methodology, noting that recent warmer climates have allowed winter crops to vegetate longer.
Potential Export Capabilities:
The Grain Exporters and Producers Union indicated that Russia could still export 25 million tons of wheat in the early part of the 2025/26 season, contingent on the recovery of winter crops.