Russian agricultural consultancy Sovecon has revised its 2025 wheat crop forecast down by 3 million metric tons, now estimating production at 78.7 million tons. This adjustment is attributed to crop conditions that Sovecon describes as the worst in decades.
Key Highlights:
Forecast Details:
The updated figure represents the smallest wheat crop since 2021, when production reached 76 million tons, and falls below the five-year average of 88.2 million tons.
Winter wheat production is now projected at 50.7 million tons, reflecting a significant reduction of 3.6 million tons from previous estimates.
Crop Conditions:
Sovecon’s head, Andrei Sizov, commented, “Crop conditions in Russia, the world’s number one wheat exporter, are the worst in decades. The global wheat supply and demand balance sheet remains tight.”
He noted that these adverse conditions have not yet been fully factored into market pricing.
Statistical Insights:
Data from the ProZerno Centre indicates that over 37% of winter crops are in poor condition or have not sprouted, a stark increase from just 4% last year, marking a historical low.
Export Trends:
Despite the challenges, Russia has been exporting wheat at a near-record pace, with 54 million tons shipped during the 2023/24 export season, despite government attempts to limit exports.
Wheat accounts for approximately 90% of all winter crops in Russia, with officials estimating this year’s wheat harvest at 83 million tons.
Area Under Wheat Cultivation:
Sovecon now estimates the total area under wheat cultivation for 2025, including both winter and spring crops, at 28.2 million hectares, down from 28.5 million hectares in 2024 and significantly lower than 29.8 million hectares in 2023.
However, the forecast for spring wheat production has been adjusted upward by 0.6 million tons to 27.9 million tons, driven by expectations of a larger planted area.