Analysts anticipate that the U.S. soybean crush for October will reach a record 6.327 million short tons, equivalent to 210.9 million bushels, according to a survey by Reuters ahead of the upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
Key Highlights:
Crush Growth:
If the average estimate of 210.9 million bushels is realized, this would represent a 13.1% increase from 186.5 million bushels in September and a 4.7% increase from 201.4 million bushels crushed in October 2023.
Processing Capacity:
The growth in U.S. soy processing capacity has been driven by expansions and new constructions of processing plants to meet rising demand for vegetable oil, particularly from biofuels producers.
However, October’s crush figures may not fully reflect this capacity increase due to maintenance at a major processing plant in Des Moines, Iowa.
Estimates Overview:
Analysts’ crush estimates ranged from 209.5 million to 212.0 million bushels, with a median estimate of 210.5 million bushels.
Upcoming Reports:
The USDA is set to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (2000 GMT) on Monday.
Soyoil Stocks:
As of October 31, 2024, U.S. soyoil stocks are estimated at 1.520 billion pounds, based on estimates from five analysts.
This figure represents a 1.3% increase from 1.501 billion pounds at the end of September and a 1.2% rise from 1.502 billion pounds a year ago.
If realized, it would mark the first increase in oil stocks in seven months.
Estimates for Oil Stocks:
Estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 1.500 billion to 1.569 billion pounds, with a median of 1.505 billion pounds.
NOPA Data:
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported that its members, who process at least 95% of U.S. soybeans, crushed a record 199.959 million bushels last month, with end-of-month oil stocks rising slightly to 1.069 billion pounds after a decline to the lowest level since November 2014.