The International Grains Council (IGC) announced on Thursday that it has revised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2024/25 season, primarily due to a diminished outlook for the European Union. The IGC’s monthly update indicates a reduction of 2 million metric tons, bringing the total projected wheat crop to 796 million tons.
The EU’s wheat production forecast was adjusted down to 120.3 million tons, down from an earlier estimate of 121.8 million tons and significantly lower than last season’s 133.1 million tons. This decline is largely attributed to France experiencing its smallest wheat crop in 40 years, alongside a sharp decrease in German production, as both countries faced persistent heavy rainfall over the past year.
In contrast, the IGC raised its global corn crop outlook for 2024/25 by 1 million tons, now projected at 1.225 billion tons. African corn production was also revised upwards to 91 million tons, an increase from the previous forecast of 86.8 million tons, though still below last season’s 93.8 million tons. This increase was somewhat offset by a slight reduction in the U.S. corn crop forecast, now estimated at 384.6 million tons, down from 386.2 million tons.
Additionally, global soybean production for 2024/25 was cut by 2 million tons to 419 million tons, primarily reflecting a reduced estimate for the U.S. crop, although this figure remains well above last season’s 396 million tons.