European Union (EU) wheat exports are increasingly directed towards the western regions of Africa as competition from Russian suppliers intensifies in key markets such as North Africa and the Middle East. This shift has been highlighted by traders during recent discussions.
Current Export Trends:
In the 2024/25 season, EU shipments of common (soft) wheat are reported to be 30% lower than the previous year due to increased competition from Russia and a rain-affected harvest in France, the EU’s largest wheat producer.
Nigeria has emerged as the top destination for EU wheat, while Algeria, previously a leading market, has fallen to fifth place according to EU trade data.
Shifts in Trade Patterns:
Karolis Simas, president of the Lithuanian Grain Processors and Traders Association, noted that Baltic states are now focusing 75% of their wheat exports on Africa, with Nigeria and South Africa replacing former top markets like Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have become more reliant on Russian wheat.
Similarly, Poland has experienced a shift, with a significant reduction in exports to Saudi Arabia, now primarily exporting to West Africa using smaller vessels instead of the larger panamax ships.
French Wheat Export Forecast:
FranceAgriMer has revised its forecast for French soft wheat exports in 2024/25, projecting a 62% decline compared to last year, largely due to a decrease in sales to Algeria.
France and Germany have attempted to adapt to Russia’s growing presence in Algeria by increasing sales to Morocco. However, Russia’s expanded market share has diminished Morocco’s significance as an EU destination.
Future Outlook:
Traders anticipate a potential increase in EU wheat sales as Russia may slow down its exports and supplies from Ukraine, another major Black Sea supplier, are expected to decrease.
Polish wheat exports could gain momentum starting in March as farmers begin to release their stockpiles, with an estimated 2 million tons of additional shipments needed following a slow start to the export season.