Russia’s agriculture ministry has confirmed that its estimates for the 2024 grain harvest and winter grain seeded area incorporate data from Ukrainian territories currently under Russian control. This announcement has raised concerns and allegations regarding the accuracy of the figures.
Grain Harvest Forecast:
The ministry projects this year’s grain harvest at 130 million tons, which marks a 12% decrease from the 148 million tons harvested in 2023 and an 18% reduction from the record 158 million tons in 2022.
Inclusion of Annexed Territories:
A ministry spokesperson stated that the estimates include data from what Russia refers to as its “new territories.” The winter grain seeded area is expected to remain at 19 million hectares, with 1.6 million hectares in the annexed regions.
Allegations of Inflated Numbers:
The Grain Union, an industry lobby group, has accused ministry officials of trying to inflate harvest figures by incorporating yields from annexed Ukrainian territories and using bunker weight instead of clean weight measurements.
Control of Ukrainian Territories:
Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, currently controls approximately 18% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. In 2023, Russia reportedly harvested about 5 million tons of grain from the four Ukrainian regions it partially controls, accounting for about 4% of the total harvest.
Comparative Production Figures:
The grain production from these Ukrainian territories is comparable to that of Russia’s Kursk region, the seventh-largest grain-producing region, which faced some crop losses due to a Ukrainian incursion last August.
Historical Context:
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, then Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev claimed that the grain harvest would increase by 5 million tons annually due to the incorporation of the four regions. However, the official data for the 2023 harvest, as compiled by the state statistics agency, includes figures from Crimea but excludes those from areas annexed during the ongoing conflict.
Concerns Over Data Manipulation:
The Grain Union has expressed concerns that the confusion surrounding the data could lead to manipulation of official numbers, obscuring the impact of poor weather on this year’s harvest in many Russian grain-producing regions.